منابع مشابه
Fair space weather for solar cycle 24
[1] We discuss the polar field precursor method of solar activity forecasting, first developed 3 decades ago. Using this method the peak amplitude of the next solar cycle (24) is estimated at 124 ± 30 in terms of smoothed F10.7 Radio Flux and 80 ± 30 in terms of smoothed international or Zurich Sunspot number (Ri or Rz). This may be regarded as a ‘‘fair space weather’’ long term forecast. To su...
متن کاملPredicting solar cycle 24 with a solar dynamo model.
Whether or not the upcoming cycle 24 of solar activity will be strong is being hotly debated. The solar cycle is produced by a complex dynamo mechanism. We model the last few solar cycles by "feeding" observational data of the Sun's polar magnetic field into our solar dynamo model. Our results fit the observed sunspot numbers of cycles 21-23 reasonably well and predict that cycle 24 will be abo...
متن کاملBayesian Inference for Identifying Solar Active Regions
The solar chromosphere consists of three classes plage, network, background which contribute differently to ultraviolet radiation reachina thn am-th ~.nl~r nhv&-iota cama intmwatd in --a “Y” U-V.&. Y”*yYJ”.“‘uY” .“A.8 .Y”YIVY”VU IY relating plage area and intensity to UV irradiante, as well as understanding the spatial and temporal evolution of plage shapes. We describe a data set of solar imag...
متن کاملSolar Irradiance Modulation by Active Regions From
Recent satellite measurements of the solar total irradiance (S) indicate that on time scales of days to months the solar constant varies by a few tenths of a percent. The predominant part of these variations can be explained by blocking of the upward solar flux by sunspots. The observations are consistent with current theoretical models of energy storage in which the energy blocked by the sunsp...
متن کاملThe Magnetic Classification of Solar Active Regions
The purpose of this letter is to address a blind-spot in our knowledge of solar active region statistics. To the best of our knowledge there are no published results showing the variation of the Mount Wilson magnetic classifications as a function of solar cycle based on modern observations. We show statistics for all active regions reported in the daily Solar Region Summary from 1992 January 1 ...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union
سال: 2015
ISSN: 1743-9213,1743-9221
DOI: 10.1017/s1743921316000223